For the past couple of years, the phrase “mortgage renewal wave” has been shorthand for one of the biggest pressures on Canadian household budgets. That wave has now crested. According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s Residential Mortgage Industry Report released in spring 2026, the peak year for renewals was 2025, when roughly 1.2 million mortgages came up for renewal. In 2026 the number is about 13% lower — on the order of a million mortgages — still a very large share of the market, but past the high-water mark.
At a glance
- CMHC reports the renewal wave peaked in 2025, when about 1.2 million mortgages renewed.
- Roughly a million mortgages are expected to renew in 2026, around 13% fewer than in 2025.
- Many 2026 renewals come from the 2020–21 cohort that locked in near 1.5–2.3% and now resets closer to 4%.
- Rates have eased over the past year — roughly 4.8% at the start of 2025 to about 4.2% at the start of 2026 — softening the reset.
- CMHC notes more borrowers are choosing variable rates as renewal pressures ease; the Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25%.
Why so many renewals still cluster here
The concentration traces back to the pandemic housing market. During 2020 and 2021, when borrowing costs were at historic lows, large numbers of buyers and refinancers locked in five-year fixed terms. Those terms mature in 2025 and 2026, which is why both years carry unusually heavy renewal volumes. 2025 was the crest; 2026 is the large second act. Even with fewer renewals than last year, the sheer number of households resetting their rate keeps renewals a defining feature of the market.
Why payments still rise for many — but by less than in 2025
The arithmetic is what makes renewals stressful. A borrower who secured a five-year fixed rate around 1.5% to 2.3% in 2020 or 2021 is renewing in 2026 into a market where five-year fixed rates at the major banks sit in the low-4% range. Moving from roughly 2% to roughly 4% can add several hundred dollars to a monthly payment, depending on the balance and the remaining amortization.
The important nuance for 2026 is that rates have come down from where they were a year earlier. CMHC data shows typical renewal rates easing from around 4.8% at the start of 2025 to about 4.2% at the start of 2026. So while many households still face a higher payment than the ultra-low rate they are leaving, the size of the increase is generally smaller than it was for those who renewed at the 2025 peak. The renewal “cliff” that dominated headlines has flattened into more of a slope.
Fixed or variable at renewal?
With the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25% and rates having eased over the past year, the fixed-versus-variable question has shifted. CMHC has observed more renewing borrowers opting for variable rates as pressures come off, betting on the possibility of further easing. A longer five-year fixed term still offers payment certainty; a shorter fixed term of one to three years, or a variable rate, keeps more flexibility to reset sooner if borrowing costs fall further.
There is no universally correct answer. The right structure depends on a household’s budget, tolerance for payment changes and view on where rates are heading. What matters is understanding the trade-off rather than defaulting to whatever term was chosen last time.
What to check before you renew
A renewal letter from an existing lender is an offer, not an obligation. A few practical steps can make a meaningful difference:
- Start early. Many lenders let you begin the renewal conversation months before maturity, which leaves time to compare.
- Compare beyond your current lender. The rate on a renewal letter is not always the lender’s best available rate, and other institutions may offer better terms.
- Factor in the stress test. Switching lenders can require requalifying, which may involve the mortgage stress test; staying with the same lender at renewal often does not.
- Weigh the payment, not just the rate. Amortization, payment frequency and prepayment privileges all affect the monthly figure and long-run interest.
- Ask about the cost of switching. Discharge, transfer or appraisal fees can offset a slightly lower rate.
A renewal is a decision, not a formality
Even though the wave has peaked, a large number of households are still renewing, and the payment change can be significant. The terms are negotiable. Comparing options and understanding the fixed-versus-variable trade-off is time well spent.
The broader picture
Beyond individual households, renewals still carry macroeconomic weight. Higher payments leave less room in household budgets for other spending, which can temper consumer demand and, in turn, inflation. Shelter costs, including mortgage interest, also feed into the Consumer Price Index. The easing of the renewal wave from its 2025 peak, combined with somewhat lower rates, is one reason concerns about a sharp renewal “shock” have softened in 2026 — even as renewals remain one of the most important stories in the mortgage market.
Sources: CMHC, “Renewal wave peaks but still dominates mortgage market” (2026), CMHC, Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Spring 2026, Ratehub, mortgage renewal rates in Canada and Bank of Canada, policy interest rate. Advertised rates and renewal volumes are estimates that change; confirm current terms directly with lenders.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute individual financial or mortgage advice. Mortgage rates, qualification rules and lender terms can change at any time and vary by borrower. Before renewing or switching a mortgage, compare current offers and consider advice from a licensed mortgage professional.